by Financial Times questions whether numbers tell full story
The Financial Times has published analysis questioning India’s impressive economic growth numbers, which is like being the person at a party who points out the birthday cake might be slightly smaller than advertised. India’s GDP figures show robust expansion, but economists are now asking the uncomfortable question: are we measuring the right things, or just measuring things right?
India’s economy has been growing at rates that make other major economies jealousofficially. The problem is that official statistics and ground reality sometimes exist in parallel universes that occasionally wave at each other but never quite meet. GDP might be up, but employment, consumption, and various other indicators suggest the story is more complicated than “India is booming” headlines imply. It’s economic Schrödinger’s cat: simultaneously growing and stagnating until you look more closely.
The article delves into questions about statistical methodologies, which sounds boring until you realize that how you count things determines what counts. India changed its GDP calculation method in 2015, leading to suddenly much better numbersnot because the economy transformed overnight, but because the math did. It’s like switching from counting calories to counting “wellness points” and declaring you’ve lost weight.
Economists note discrepancies between GDP growth and other economic indicators. If the economy is roaring ahead, why isn’t consumption keeping pace? Why are employment figures stubbornly refusing to match growth rates? It’s the economic equivalent of someone claiming they’re thriving while their fridge is empty and they’re wearing the same clothes from three years ago. The numbers don’t quite add up, but questioning them feels like party-pooping.
The Financial Timesnever one to shy away from uncomfortable truths that might upset people at cocktail partiespoints out that India’s economic miracle might be more mirage than miracle. This isn’t to say India isn’t growing; it’s questioning how much, how sustainably, and whether the growth is reaching enough people to justify the triumphalism. It’s the difference between growth and inclusive growth, between numbers and lived reality.
Part of the challenge is that India’s economy is massive and diverse, making accurate measurement genuinely difficult. The informal sectorwhich employs most Indiansis notoriously hard to track. How do you accurately count economic activity when much of it happens in cash, off books, and through networks that don’t file quarterly reports? You make educated guesses, which is fine until those guesses become treated as facts.
Critics of the questioning are quick to dismiss it as Western media being unable to accept Indian success. This is sometimes true. It’s also true that healthy economies can handle scrutiny of their statistics without treating questions as attacks. If the numbers are solid, questioning them only makes them more credible. If they’re shaky, well, better to know now than later.
The article notes that even if GDP growth is real, distribution matters. An economy can grow robustly while most citizens see little benefitand in fact, this describes much of modern economic history. India’s consumption patterns, employment data, and income distribution suggest growth isn’t translating to prosperity for vast swaths of the population. It’s trickle-down economics except the trickle got stuck somewhere around the penthouse.
India’s government has been understandably defensive about questions regarding its economic data, responding with the kind of enthusiasm usually reserved for discovering your ex is dating your nemesis. Statistics become political in ways that make objective discussion nearly impossible. Questioning GDP calculations gets interpreted as questioning national pride, when really it’s just asking “are we measuring this right?”
SOURCE: https://www.ft.com/content/c0fd803d-dd63-43dc-9048-967a7b7eff41
SOURCE: Bohiney.com (https://www.ft.com/content/c0fd803d-dd63-43dc-9048-967a7b7eff41)
